Sunday, 3 February 2008

Weekly Business Round-up (February 02, 2008)

By WILLIAM BOOT/BANGKOK
Saturday, February 2, 2008

Chinese Influence in Burma’s Gas Industry Grows

China’s involvement in Burma’s gas industry continues to expand. The state Chinese Offshore Oil Corporation is now negotiating to acquire stakes in several of Thailand’s offshore exploration projects.

CNOOC, which is already set to monopolize the large gas reserve in two wells in the Shwe fields off Burma’s west coast, is expected to reach an agreement with PTT Exploration and Production Company for shares in the Thai enterprise’s M3, M4 and M9 blocks off the east coast of the Gulf of Martaban.

PTTEP, which is majority owned by the Thai government and other state institutions, has disclosed it is considering some form of co-development with the Chinese—possibly to share some of the rising costs of producing undersea gas.

PTTEP disclosed this week that it may sell 20 percent stakes in the blocks or engage in a co-development exchange for some of CNOOC’s onshore oil and gas projects in Burma.
Thailand is currently the biggest buyer of Burma’s gas, which helps fuel the Thai power-generating industry.

In recent months, PTTEP revealed that its exploratory drilling in the M9 block—close to the shores of both Burma and Thailand —had discovered a minimum quantity of gas there at 1.8 trillion cubic feet (50 billion cubic meters), second only to the Shwe finds.

CNOOC involvement in M9 would give the Chinese an overwhelming influence in Burma’s known gas reserves.

China recently was named the sole buyer of the gas in the Shwe field’s A1 and A3 blocks, confirmed to have 6 trillion cubic feet (200 billion meters) of recoverable gas.

China used its influence with the Burmese generals to win the rights, overcoming bids from India, South Korea and Thailand.

Burmese Electricity Projects Biggest Foreign Investments in 2007

Despite Burma’s growing revenue from gas sales, the biggest foreign investment in Burma is in electricity project developments, according to the official Chinese news agency Xinhua.

A total of US $6.3 billion was invested, or pledged, by foreign businesses in Burma’s power sector, compared with $3.2 billion in oil and gas development.

Much of the investment in electrical power is destined for hydroelectric projects on rivers which flow through Burma from China—and most of the planned electricity generation is destined for China or Thailand.

Virtually none of the investment in Burma’s “power sector” will benefit the Burmese, say analysts. The country has one of the least developed electricity systems in East Asia, with a generating capacity for 52 million people that is about equal to that consumed by neighboring Bangkok, the Thai capital.

The biggest power development investment comes from a Thai-Chinese consortium for a 7,000 megawatt hydro scheme on the Salween River; the electricity is destined to be sent across the border into Thailand.

Ironically, some of this power could indirectly end up in another underdeveloped Southeast Asian country with little electricity generation—Cambodia.

The Asian Development Bank announced on January 31 a $7 million loan to the Cambodians to build transmission lines to import electricity from Thailand into western Cambodia, including to the tourism hub of Siem Reap, the gateway to Angkor Wat.

“The development will be a boost for the economy of northwest Cambodia, not just in tourism but also in agriculture, services and manufacturing,” said an ADB statement.

New Thai Government Could Threaten Burmese Remittances

The round up of about 250 Burmese migrant workers at a Bangkok garment factory this week highlights worries over a new crackdown on illegal workers by the new Thai government.

A migrant worker crackdown could undermine large scale remittances to financially desperate families in Burma.

An estimated 1.5 to 2 million Burmese working in Thailand are illegal immigrants, but their presence has until now been convenient for both countries.

Cheap Burmese labor helps Bangkok’s booming construction industry and elsewhere—notably in the garments trade—and helps to keep Thailand competitive. The money sent home by the Burmese workers helps keep the junta’s floundering economy afloat.

But the arrival or a newly elected, more nationalistic government in Bangkok, coupled with fears of a downturn in the economy, could change labor and immigration policies, say analysts and social welfare activists.

The Yaung Chi Oo Workers Association, based in Mae Sot, says that despite the risks more Burmese will continue to cross the border to look for work in Thailand.

“The recent surge in inflation [in Burma] has created a devastating economic situation, further contributing to a rising number of Burmese migrant workers in Thailand,” the association says on its Web site. Migrants generally work in factories, fisheries, agriculture, farming, construction, entertainment and domestic sectors.

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