Thursday, 20 November 2008

Plotting a vengeful return to power via mob rule?

Bangkok Post
Thursday November 20, 2008

Nattaya Chetchotiros

It may have come as a big surprise for People Power party (PPP) MPs when deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra told them last Friday that he had divorced his wife, Khunying Potjaman. However, for those keeping an eye on the couple's political endeavours and how they have dealt with political problems, the divorce was not something out of the blue.

It was just another tactic employed to pave the way for their fight to return to power.

Mr Thaksin told his close aides, "[We divorced, so that] my wife and children would not have to keep moving from one place to another. From now on, I won't have to be worried about them. I have no choice. Even though I've stopped, they did not stop killing me."

Of course, "they" meant his enemies, and "kill" did not literally mean murder, but political assassination.

Fighting the privileged elite and anti-Thaksin people in the country remains a major challenge for the globe-trotting fugitive and his cronies at every level.

On Nov 1, when he phoned into Kwam Jing Wan Nee (The Truth Today) talk show, Thaksin was overwhelmed by the positive response from his supporters.

However, the government of the United Kingdom where he and his family had lived in exile consequently revoked his and his wife's visas on Nov 7. After that, he divorced his wife on Nov 14.

After the visa revocation, Thaksin has been more cautious. He delayed and reduced the frequency of his phone-in talks on community radio programmes in the North and Northeast.

Initially, Thaksin planned to phone in to talk to his supporters at the Truth Today gathering to be held at Wat Suan Kaew on Nov 23. The plan was eventually postponed to Dec 14, and the venue will now be the National Stadium in Bangkok.

Thaksin seems to have concluded that his political games in the past were not aggressive enough. As a result, his political opponents in Thailand had grabbed the upper hand and revved up their game in the hope of completely toppling his so-called regime by the end of next month.

In his opinion, the first strike from his opponents would be the possible dissolution of the PPP by the Constitution Court and subsequent five-year political ban on its 37 executives, similar to that faced by the 111 former executives of the dissolved Thai Rak Thai party.

The second strike would be the National Anti-Corruption Commission's (NACC) charge against 28 members of the Samak Sundaravej cabinet, which includes incumbent Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat, for alleged negligence of duty and violation of the Constitution in relation to its support for Cambodia's bid to have the Preah Vihear temple listed as a World Heritage site.

In the latter case, Thaksin and his cronies know well that the Samak cabinet will not survive the NACC axe.

"They must try to kill us all," Thaksin was quoted telling his PPP members and followers who flocked to visit him in Hong Kong both before and after his divorce. Thaksin has since left Hong Kong for Dubai.

Thaksin is convinced PM Somchai will either be banned from politics or charged by the NACC. What he could not be sure of, is which would come first.

Anyhow, he has plotted a plan to accommodate the dissolution of PPP. The new prime minister would be someone who can avoid the legal traps and over whom he can exert complete control.

An immediate way out for the PPP after its dissolution could be the transferring of MPs who do not face a political ban, to the newly-founded Puea Thai party. This way out would not be a long-term solution for the party, however.

Thaksin views the new set of Puea Thai executives to be appointed soon, as the fourth generation of his political heirs. Among them are his younger sister Yingluck, his younger brother Payap and his cousin Gen Chaisit, who was appointed Army chief while Thaksin was the prime minister.

Thaksin is aware, though, that all of them would have to struggle through a tough time in politics.

He believes it is very likely they will encounter yellow or red cards, or even another party dissolution verdict, just like that of the dissolved Thai Rak Thai and possibly the PPP.

For the 111 former Thai Rak Thai executives, apart from the five-year political ban, many of them are defendants in a number of alleged graft cases indicted in the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions, including one related to the two- and three-digit lottery scheme and the Agriculture Ministry's purchase of para rubber saplings.

If convicted and sentenced to jail, those 111 former executives would not be able to run for a political post ever again.

Twenty-eight members of the Samak cabinet would face a similar destiny. Most of them are also in the Somchai cabinet. Once the NACC formally charges them, they would no longer be able to keep their cabinet posts.

The 28 Samak cabinet members would not be able to follow the action of former deputy prime minister and finance minister Surapong Suebwonglee, Labour Minister Uraiwan Thienthong and former deputy transport minister Anurak Jureemart - all of whom refused to step down from their positions even though the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions had accepted the case for deliberation. The three reasoned that the court had not ordered them to step down.

The Samak cabinet members would not be able to follow this path because of the resignation of Democrat Apirak Kosayodhin from the post of Bangkok governor. Mr Apirak, after having just won an election to run City Hall for a second term, resigned immediately after being charged by the NACC on allegations of graft related to the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration's purchase of fire trucks. Mr Apirak's resignation has set a new standard for correct political conduct.

After calculating what might happen to Puea Thai party and its executives in the future, Thaksin would rather draw more support from people who empathise with his family's situation following his divorce, and embark on a mob-rule strategy to force his way back to power. His aim would be to get an amnesty law passed, for himself and his cronies who have been - and who are likely to be - convicted and sentenced to jail terms.

Those in the know believe Thaksin would dare to do all this - even if several other countries refuse him entry, and even if his acts of vengeance result in a civil war in his motherland.

Nattaya Chetchotiros is President of the Thai Journalists Association and Assistant News Editor, Bangkok Post.

No comments: