Tuesday, 23 March 2010

It's not over till it's over

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/
via CAAI News Media

By Thanong Khanthong
The Nation
Published on March 19, 2010

The red shirts appear to be seeking a soft landing. They don't want to leave Bangkok without declaring some sort of victory. The trouble is, they can't find any face-saving excuses so they can disband and go home. Efforts are underway to allow them a graceful exit. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva must play the game by giving some promises that appear to yield to the red demands, so they can retreat with grace.

So what has gone wrong for the red shirts? Going into this rally, they were confident they would be able to finish off the government in five days. The provincial reds, with reinforcement from Bangkok, would storm the capital to demand Abhisit step down or dissolve Parliament. They bragged they would be able to raise one million supporters to bring Bangkok to a standstill.

But they could manage only 100,000 at the most on March 14. They gave Abhisit until noon on Monday to step down or they would wreak havoc. Abhisit almost underestimated the situation. He was scheduled to visit Australia and New Zealand but changed his mind after an audience with HM the King on March 8.

Thaksin Shinawatra was believed to be in Siem Reap, Cambodia, taking full command. Four generals - two Army, one Air Force and one Navy - formed a war room to coordinate the red attack.

Abhisit withdrew from Government House and moved to the 11th Infantry Regiment in Bang Khen instead, under full protection. The generals now called the shots.

The red shirts made their way to the 11th Infantry to challenge the premier. The Monday noon deadline passed, with Abhisit reaffirming that he would not dissolve Parliament. He also had the coalition partners give a public assurance they were not going to jump ship.

With Abhisit's firm stand, the reds could only make louder noises. The military prudently countered with a psychological war. A special team from Lop Buri worked with the crowds to calm their nerve. The military played music for them and spoke in a friendly way.

"Let's see your feet clapping," a military MC said. The red shirts responded. The military also turned up the loudspeakers so the red-shirt leaders had to back off. "You don't need to dissolve the House. I don't care now. But please decrease the volume," Veera Musigapong shouted. Tired of the military, Natthawut Saikua, another red-shirt leader, got annoyed: "Hey, I'm not Angulimala (a murderer during the Buddha's time who wore a garland of his victims' fingers around his neck). Could you stop it?" Intensifying the protest, Natthawut declared that the reds should draw blood and splash it onto Government House as a curse.

Abhisit flew out of the Army camp by helicopter. He visited drought areas and reservoirs in the North. When he returned to Bangkok, he was beginning to feel nervous. The red shirts meant business. The coalition partners might jump ship. Newin Chidchob of Bhumjai Thai had been to London. The Democrats suspected that Newin could have struck a deal with Thaksin.

The Democrats also smelt something fishy at an unexpected move by Chai Chidchob, the House Speaker, to call a joint parliamentary session on Tuesday. What was Chai up to? Even with this crisis, Chai wanted the session without consulting the Senate president or government whip. The Democrats would not fall into the trap. They sent a signal that they would not attend Parliament.

What if the Democrats had been so foolish as to attend Parliament on Tuesday? The plan would be similar to the bloody Songkran events last year. Then, Abhisit was trapped in the Interior Ministry after issuing an emergency decree. The red shirts surrounded his limo and attacked it. Abhisit could have been killed.

This time the reds, led by Arisman Phongruangrong, planned to surround and storm Parliament during the joint session. We will never know what might have happened to Abhisit then. And Chai would have come up with some sort of reconciliation plan by gearing Parliament toward an amnesty for both Newin and Thaksin. Sanan Khachornprasat could be the next prime minister.

This plan didn't materialise. The Democrats held their nerve. The coalition partners decided not to quit after seeing that the tide was turning fast against the reds. Thaksin quickly flew off to Montenegro after the reds were routed.

The red shirts were caught in disarray. Veera declared that the Pheu Thai MPs should resign from Parliament as a protest. His call fell on deaf ears.

What followed was the blood campaign and voodoo rituals. Now the red shirts are pondering what to do next. The protest may be raised to a higher level of intensity - more underground violence. It's not over till it's over.

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